SHFE tin is under pressure and weakening, waiting for macro guidance amid weak supply and demand [SMM tin midday review]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (2508): Opened at 265,810 yuan/mt today, closed at 263,240 yuan/mt at midday, down 1.12%. The intraday fluctuation range was 263,000–266,000 yuan/mt, with the price center slightly moving downward, reflecting a rise in market risk-aversion sentiment.

LME tin continuous contract: Currently quoted at $33,350/mt, down slightly by 0.63%; continued to fluctuate downward during the Asian session. Inventory dynamics: Total LME tin inventory fell to 2,095 mt, with low inventory providing bottom support for prices.

Sluggish spot transactions: Downstream acceptance of high prices was low, with a downward trend in spot premiums observed before midday. Trading was dominated by arbitrage activities among traders.

Expectations for US Fed interest rate cut have risen (with Bowman supporting a July cut), but risk events such as Trump's interference in the central bank's independence have suppressed the performance of precious and industrial metals.

Short-term trend: The most-traded SHFE tin contract is under pressure at the resistance level of 266,000 yuan/mt, with the support level below at 260,000 yuan/mt. Given the weak supply and demand situation, prices are unlikely to break out of the fluctuation range. We await guidance from the US CPI data tonight for macroeconomic direction.